Chapter 2834 Strategy

Xi Yazhou ignored Old Di's interruption. "That's correct, but the Ming-controlled prefectures of Wuzhou, Pingle, and Guilin happen to be the regions with the most appointed officials in Guangxi—and consequently the most stable. What remains for Xiong Wencan is western and northern Guangxi, territories teeming with Yao people, Láng people, and various local chieftains. Historically, of course, the Láng people of Guangxi have served as one of Ming's crucial troop sources in the southwest. But mobilizing chieftain wolf soldiers requires money, and how many can he possibly recruit with the paltry twenty thousand taels Chongzhen allocated him? Last year, when the Linlan miners' uprising erupted, his standard camp was dispatched to support Yongzhou. The moment they departed, a Yao rebellion flared up in Liuzhou, and the prefectural seat at Maping County was burned to ashes. At present, Ming-controlled Guangxi is ablaze on all sides, smoke rising from every direction. Most of the remaining Ming troops are garrison soldiers who can barely hold their strongpoints. Even if Old Xiong wanted to employ a 'driving tigers to devour wolves' strategy by pushing Yao and Láng people toward us, he couldn't manage it—without a field army, there's simply no one to do the driving. Lead troops against the Kun personally? He might as well be handed a rope and told to hang himself."

"As for Fu Zonglong—Chongzhen has had him training troops all this time. He claims to have assembled ten battalions of firearms forces, though in reality he commands no more than three thousand men. Most are recruited miners, and they don't even have enough bird-guns to go around—not that it matters, since he looks down on bird-guns anyway and insists on purchasing Nanyang-style firearms. Miners can be decent fighters as long as their wages are paid, but therein lies the problem: his wages have never been paid in full. Last year, when Zhang Puwei's Mimi Cult rose up, all of Fu Zonglong's forces became pinned down in Jiangxi. By comparison, Pianyan Provincial Governor Chen Ruimo warrants more attention—after all, he commands fifteen thousand men. Besides recruited miners, his forces have been reorganized from the original garrison troops, so their combat effectiveness isn't particularly high. However, note that the Pianyan Governor's jurisdiction encompasses Shizhou Guard, Yongshun Pacification Commission, Baojing State Pacification Commission, and other chieftain territories. If the three major chieftains of Yongshun, Baojing, and Rongmei in this region were fully mobilized, they could provide anywhere from three thousand to ten thousand troops. These chieftain soldiers excel at scaling cliffs and threading through forests. Even if they cannot face the Fubo Army in open battle, once they infiltrate our controlled areas through mountain routes to wreak havoc, they could inflict considerable damage."

"Since we're discussing chieftains—what about Qin Liangyu?" The questioner was Li Di, the only Navy Senator on the inspection team. "I'd very much like to meet those female soldiers under her command."

"Qin Liangyu doesn't command any female soldiers. Stop indulging your fantasies."

"Zhu Youjian certainly hasn't forgotten those formidable eastern Sichuan chieftains. But the Shizhu, Youyang, and Xiushan forces of eastern Sichuan—especially Shizhu, meaning Qin Liangyu's force that you're thinking of—have fought numerous battles with Li Chuangwang and the Western Camp during their repeated incursions into Sichuan, suffering considerable losses. For nearly twenty years, Shizhu's able-bodied men have marched to war for Ming, and nearly every family has suffered casualties. However loyal Qin Liangyu may be to Ming, she cannot expend all her people. My estimate is that the eastern Sichuan chieftains might contribute somewhere between three and four thousand troops this time. Combined with the Huguang chieftains, that indeed represents a significant threat."

"No wonder the National Army needs to recruit Vietnamese monkeys. Fight poison with poison." Old Di paused. "Any other forces?"

"The Zheng family of Fujian. Over the past two years, Zhu Youjian has been vigorously courting the Zhengs—bestowing titles and ranks upon Zheng Sen, promising them a transfer to Ningbo to manage maritime trade, summoning Zheng Hongkui for an audience. Would he possibly let them sit idle when it comes to suppressing the Kun? True, under Senate blockade, the Zhengs' fiscal revenue and military strength have long since withered. But however diminished they may be, they can still field a few battalions on land and several dozen ships at sea. Moreover, according to reports from Manila Station, Zheng Hongkui has been colluding with Heer. If he manages to acquire some fancy toys from Heer and surprise us when the time comes—it's not impossible."

Li Di pursed his lips, swallowing whatever he'd been about to say, and listened as Xi Yazhou continued: "Of course, the probability of Ming's true main force—the northern border armies, especially those from Jizhen, Liaoning-Ningyuan, and Xuanfu-Datong—marching south remains relatively low. After all, the Qing troops are far closer to Beijing than the Kun bandits. The northwestern border armies, however, represent a variable. If Li Chuangwang's defeat is confirmed, Chongzhen may well dispatch Sun Chuanting, or even Hong Chengchou, to lead the Qin Army in suppressing the Kun. Then there's the Brave Guard Camp from the Beijing garrison system. These two forces are probably Chongzhen's trump cards. In sum, if he commits everything, Chongzhen could mobilize approximately seventy thousand Ming troops for a combined suppression of the Senate. Our assessment is that the main attacking force will number somewhere between thirty and forty thousand."

The riding crop moved again to the southern portion of the map. "General Staff has war-gamed several Ming army advance plans. In truth, the enemy's options are limited. The most probable approach involves advancing from Yongzhou, with the capture of Guilin Prefecture as the primary objective. After taking Guilin, they would advance from there to gradually squeeze Australia-Song's presence in Guangxi. Simultaneously, they would dispatch a diversionary force from Daoxian, moving through Jiangyong and Zhongshan counties via Yinzhu Ridge to raid toward Hezhou—or alternatively from Chenzhou, taking the Yangshan Pass route to reach the Lianzhou area, then descending the North River to raid Guangzhou. The route from Linwu in Hunan down the Wu River to Shaoguan is less probable due to the Wu River's treacherous rapids. If they were to split forces from the Hunan-Jiangxi direction, the likelier path would be from Ganzhou via Meiguan Pass toward Shaoguan. Meanwhile, the court would mobilize Zheng family forces to infiltrate the Chaoshan region or launch maritime raids to pin down our forces."

"If the Ming main force doesn't aim to take Guilin directly, they might instead advance separately from Yongzhou and Chenzhou, with the capture of Hezhou and Lianzhou as their primary objectives. This plan's two main march routes are relatively narrow and rugged, unsuitable for the movement of large armies. However, once Hezhou and Lianzhou fall, they can threaten Guilin from the northwest while simultaneously threatening Guangzhou by advancing downriver to the southeast. We can also anticipate that once Ming forces cross the Nanling range, they will inevitably split to attack in multiple directions, forcing us to fight fires everywhere while neglecting certain fronts."

"The third possibility involves the entire Ming army attacking Shaoguan via Meiguan Pass. This direction boasts a complete post road system, making the march relatively convenient. Once Shaoguan falls, they would have the advantage of waterway resupply. It represents the orthodox approach for advancing into the Two Guangs. But correspondingly, our defensive challenges would also be lower. General Staff believes the probability of Ming concentrating all forces in this direction is not high."

"So Ming forces will either center their attack on Guilin with coordinated main and diversionary thrusts, or split into multiple columns to infiltrate Senate territory and cause destruction." Chairman Wang summarized the analysis. "Does General Staff have contingency plans?"

"The most mature and least technically demanding is Plan A." Xi Yazhou's riding crop traced a line across the map. "Our forces would deploy from Guilin in the west to Shaoguan in the east in a long, stretched formation. Specifically, the Fubo Army would advance to the Xing'an-Guanyang-Daoxian-Ningyuan-Chenzhou-Rucheng line—roughly equivalent to the old-timeline G76 highway—and establish defensive positions to meet Ming attacks. The National Army would hold key towns in the second line to counter any small enemy forces that manage to penetrate. Due to the excessive length of the front and our limited forces, our defensive positions would be spread rather thin."

A snicker emanated from the carriage. "What pig-like tactics."

"Correct. During war-gaming, we felt this plan was too comprehensive. The flaw of being too comprehensive is that it becomes passive and rigid, easily allowing the enemy to identify weaknesses to penetrate and inflict rear-area damage. Of course, strategically this wouldn't affect anything—Ming forces lack the ability to accumulate tactical victories into a strategic breakthrough. We would simply win less elegantly."

"Plan B substitutes offense for defense. Specifically, two combined brigades from the Guilin direction and one combined brigade from the Lianzhou direction would advance north into Hunan, attacking toward the Chenzhou-Hengyang-Changsha line. By threatening Hunan's key areas, we would draw the Ming main force to respond, aiming for a decisive battle beneath the walls of Hengyang or Changsha—annihilating the bulk of enemy combat power in a single stroke. This plan could create a large buffer zone in southern Hunan for the Senate while ensuring Ming couldn't advance south for several years after suffering such heavy losses."

"This Plan B sounds like reversing the Ming route of advancing south from Yongzhou and Chenzhou." Jiang Ye spoke while chewing on jackfruit. "The narrow roads and difficult resupply that pose problems for Ming would equally exist for the Fubo Army, wouldn't they? Looking at the map, there's no waterway to utilize along this line."

"Precisely. Additionally, if the Fubo Army advances to the Hengyang-Changsha line, our supply lines become exceedingly long, affording Ming or local armed forces ample opportunities. I personally don't favor this plan." Xi Yazhou's riding crop retracted from Changsha. "Plan C is the reduced version. With one combined brigade garrisoned in Guangxi as the main force, we would advance from Guilin to capture Yongzhou. Meanwhile, one infantry battalion from Zhaoqing would advance to Hezhou for defense, and another battalion would advance to Lianzhou to coordinate in monitoring key routes. Alternatively, two battalions from Lianzhou would advance to encircle Chenzhou. The objective remains the same: to draw Ming forces to relieve or retake Yongzhou or Chenzhou, luring them into our prepared killing ground for annihilation. Naturally, Navy cooperation to strike the Zheng family in Fujian would also be required."

"But what if Ming refuses to follow our script? Suppose Chen Ruimo is eager to retake Yongzhou or Chenzhou but lacks the authority to command Zuo Liangyu. What if Zuo Liangyu has no interest in relieving Yongzhou or Chenzhou and instead attempts to fragment his forces, infiltrating our territory for raiding and destruction—what then?"

"Understood. Attack what the enemy must defend—the key lies in the word 'must.' Now let me discuss my personal favorite: Plan D." The riding crop moved to the sea, tracing a half-circle along the coastline before finally coming to rest at the Yangtze estuary. "This plan can also be called the Southern Zhili Campaign. The main force would consist of one Fubo Army combined brigade, reinforced with artillery plus reconnaissance and logistics units. We would also draw from the Marine Expeditionary Force and National Army foreign units to form a task force, with the Navy dispatching a task fleet. The operations plan is as follows—T-Day marks confirmation of the Ming court's determination to march south:

"T+1 Day: Issue mobilization and operations orders;

T+5 Days: Marine Expeditionary Force and task fleet assemble at Kaohsiung on standby; T+2 Weeks: Task force main body completes assembly and landing preparations, assembles at Hong Kong and Kaohsiung on standby; T+10-15 Days: Marine Expeditionary Force captures Zhoushan to establish forward base; T+25 Days: Task force main body lands at Zhoushan for assembly and rest; T+1 Month: Task force enters the Yangtze River, lands at Wusong;"

(End of Chapter)