Chapter 2835 Strategy (Part 2)

"Upon landing, seizing Songjiang and Suzhou prefectures constitutes our first objective. The second objective involves using the task fleet to support ground forces in capturing Zhenjiang, Yangzhou, and Huai'an—thereby seizing tribute grain and severing the Grand Canal. Surrounding and assaulting the auxiliary capital of Nanjing forms our third objective. Simultaneously, the Navy will conduct feints along the Fujian and Zhejiang coasts, pinning down the Zheng family while preventing Zhejiang's Ming forces from redeploying to Southern Zhili. The entire operation will adjust according to weather and sea conditions, with the goal of achieving all objectives and concluding operations before the Mid-Autumn Festival."

"Is taking Nanjing under consideration?" Wang Luobin asked.

"It's not part of the planned objectives," Xi Yazhou replied. "Capturing Nanjing would shake Ming too severely. Our goal is forcing peace through war—we still need to leave the other side a way out."

"Taking Su-Song-Chang-Tai alone would be enough to shake Ming..."

"I have a question." It was Dr. Lin Motian, also returning to Lingao for vacation, who spoke up. "Since we're deploying the Navy anyway, why not sail directly north to bombard Tianjin, or land there and march on Beijing—give Chongzhen a direct shock? If I remember correctly, we have ports at Jeju and Longkou for resupply."

"Tianjin makes for a poor landing site." Before Xi Yazhou could respond, Old Di jumped in. "That damned Dagu area is nothing but mud flats. Take one step and your leg sinks in—you can't pull it out."

"Correct. Moreover, the Tianjin of this era isn't even one five-hundredth the size of its old-timeline counterpart. From the Hai River's mouth to the Tianjin garrison city—the hub of the Grand Canal—requires a sixty or seventy kilometer journey upstream. The Hai River runs shallow with numerous bends. If Ming receives expert advice and positions Hongyi cannons at a river bend, who ends up shelling whom becomes anyone's guess. Let's not forget—the Qing's greatest warship-sinking victory against Westerners occurred at Dagu."

"That kind of ambush—warfare in South China has cost the Navy dearly as well." Li Di rarely agreed with anyone.

"Furthermore, even if a landing at Tianjin succeeded and we advanced on Beijing, Ming would certainly dispatch their most elite border troops—forces from Jizhen, Liaoning-Ningyuan, perhaps even the Xuanfu-Datong armies—to encircle us. But Ming's Southern Zhili garrison hasn't seen combat since the Jiajing Japanese Pirate crisis a hundred years ago—their combat effectiveness has rotted away to nothing. Which persimmon is softer and easier to squeeze should be obvious. Of course, Fubo Army fears no Ming force. When we march into Southern Zhili, Chongzhen will almost certainly deploy his northern border armies southward. But Jiangnan's dense network of waterways, combined with our naval advantage, actually favors fighting battles of annihilation in Southern Zhili rather than achieving mere frontal routs."

The advantages of this plan were self-evident. First, it broke free from passive defense, substituting offense for defense and seizing the strategic initiative. Second, the costs remained relatively low. Alternative plans all required massive mobilization and fortification—essentially every garrison in the Two Guangs would need to engage in defensive operations, plus reinforcements would have to be brought in. Plan D demanded far fewer troops to mobilize.

"I also lean toward Plan D," Wang Luobin stated his position. "We need to carry the war outward, bring the flames to Ming's heartland. We must not only strangle the Grand Canal—Ming's lifeline—but also demonstrate to Chongzhen that we can strangle it for as long as we wish, as many times as we choose. And we can annihilate his field armies there as well—only then can we puncture Zhu Youjian's fantasies of war. As for those peace-opposing Qingliu scholar-officials in Beijing, once the Jing-Tong granaries run dry and there's nothing left to eat, will they still have the strength for empty talk?"

"Marching into Southern Zhili accomplishes multiple goals: it draws all of Chongzhen's attention, preventing him from threatening the Two Guangs, while several million shi of tribute grain falling into our hands would greatly ease our logistics pressure. More importantly, consider the political impact—Jiangnan's wealthiest gentry would encounter Senate power for the first time. If we can win, and win beautifully, they'll leap entirely onto the Senate's ship. So I have only one question: one infantry brigade plus the Marine Corps and foreign security forces—seven to eight thousand men, under ten thousand total. Southern Zhili's Ming forces, however useless they may be, still number in the tens of thousands. Add to that the tens of thousands of Ming troops originally slated to march south against the Two Guangs—they'll certainly be redirected to relieve Southern Zhili. Can we truly win beautifully?"

"Whether we can win beautifully—asking the Army alone isn't sufficient. The Navy faces considerable issues of its own." Li Di's tone began calmly but grew increasingly agitated as he continued. "From Operation Overlord to the Two Guangs Campaign, the Navy hasn't received a single new large warship capable of naval combat. To date, the only new vessel we've gotten is a collier—and that was only because we rode on the coattails of bulk-building colliers for Dabo Company. Steam combat vessels over five hundred tons: we have only eight. These ships are now entering major overhaul cycles one after another—each requires three to six months minimum. We're currently forced to rely on Coast Guard vessels to blockade Zheng family smuggling—a thoroughly passive situation. If this plan actually passes, you're expecting the Navy's handful of oceangoing combat vessels to sweep Zhoushan, enter the Yangtze, support the Army, while simultaneously maintaining blockade, patrol, and feint-bombardment missions spanning from Ha Long Bay in the south to Jeju in the north—comrades, you're asking the Navy to fly to the moon." He grabbed his teacup and gulped several mouthfuls. "Oh, and let's not forget Vice Minister Zhou in Sanya—Zhou the Emperor—whose head is consumed with his Mekong River colony, constantly asking when the Navy will sweep the pirates southward for him. So where are the ships? The guns? The trained officers and sailors? Go conjure them up!"

"Building large ships—there's probably not enough time now." Facing Li Di's barrage, Chairman Wang responded calmly, sidestepping the key issue of "no money" and addressing only the matter of timing. "The Coast Guard recently received approval to build eight motor-sail patrol boats. That construction needs to accelerate. Blockade patrols, anti-piracy operations, and similar tasks—have the Coast Guard assume as much responsibility as possible, freeing up the fleet. Also, if I recall correctly, Lichun entered dry dock for conversion late last year? That needs to finish as soon as possible. Everyone faces difficulties, but solutions must be found. No new ships for now, but new guns can be arranged. There's going to be fighting—the Finance Ministry will likely arrange a supplementary budget. It's just that Old Cheng's deficit reduction plan for this year is probably going to fall through again."

"He says every year that the deficit is too high, needs cutting, or there'll be a crisis. What crisis—the market's thriving..."

"You can't put it that way." Wang Luobin was well aware of the current fiscal situation. The market thriving was true—consumer spending figures looked as favorable as possible. But this came at the cost of loose fiscal policy. Massive fixed asset investment combined with enormous military and administrative expenses had caused deficits to mount daily over these past few years.

Though the so-called "silver standard" rigid convertibility still maintained societal confidence in the currency, the market couldn't be fooled. According to Finance Bureau's confidential statistics, price indices were rising steadily. To maintain currency stability, the Planning Commission had already begun low-price releases of grain and cloth to suppress the CPI, preventing residents' living costs from climbing further.

Though moderate inflation benefited the economy, exactly what constituted "moderate" was currently being hotly debated between industrial and financial circles. Cheng Dong had already stated multiple times in internal meetings: if the deficit couldn't be sharply reduced soon, the Senate should find someone else—he couldn't serve as Finance Minister any longer.

"Our finances are indeed unhealthy. His concern is warranted," Wang Luobin said. "But right now we have no choice. Whether to fight isn't something we can resolve by hoping for peace."

"Fight one battle—if we can trade it for three to five years of peace, that would be worthwhile..." Lin Motian said.

"Optimistically, perhaps ten years of peace," Wang Luobin said. "Of course, this question isn't ours to decide—it depends mainly on debates within Ming's court."

"Stop keeping us in suspense—leak some inside information?"

"Good heavens, you people really don't read the papers." Wang Luobin laughed. "It's all in Weekly News..."

"Too lazy to read that thing."

"Very well. Synthesizing everything, the situation is this: within Ming's court, there's gradually emerging the possibility of two factions forming—a Kun Affairs faction and an Expel the Kun faction... though currently it remains just a possibility."

"Damn, isn't this replicating the Qing?"

"I'd say it's a fairly normal reaction. After all, in recent years, quite a few people in the court and countryside have witnessed the power of our 'strange skills and excessive cleverness.' And we're different from the Qing—nineteenth-century Chinese had almost no opportunity to visit Europe. But Ming commoners and gentry can travel to and from Hainan and Guangdong with relative convenience. They can easily compare advantages and disadvantages. If perceptive individuals harbored no thoughts whatsoever, that would be an insult to their intelligence."

"Ming faces internal and external troubles. There's motivation for change. A Kun Affairs Movement may emerge soon—that would present a valuable opportunity for us to gradually transform society."

"Hard to say." Wang Luobin shook his head. "Late Ming politics differ considerably from late Qing. They feel more complex, even. Chongzhen and the Empress Dowager are not the same type of ruler. The Eight Banner nobility and Ming's imperial clan also differ fundamentally... Some things cannot be reasoned through common logic. The late Qing's Self-Strengthening Movement can serve only as partial reference, not as a template. Besides, we've already departed from the original historical trajectory—many things have become unpredictable. For example, the Manchu entry into China in Chongzhen 17—the way events are evolving, they probably won't be able to enter."

"Sun Yuanhua's great victory in Korea—the Manchus inevitably have to watch both directions now."

"Yes. Dongjiang represents another variable..."

"If they don't enter China—isn't that even better? Is the Senate so reluctant to see Ming fall by our hands?"

"Our generation probably doesn't care." Wang Luobin shook his head, somewhat heavily. "Future generations—that's harder to say. Rather than burdening descendants with unnecessary controversy, better that we handle things more thoroughly now."

The train sounded its whistle again. Their speed gradually slowed. "We're nearly at Lingao." Wang Luobin lifted the curtain to glance outside, then turned back to face the group. "This trip, including today's informal meeting, has proven very productive for me. Time waits for no one. I hope everyone will take stock of the work at hand. Comrades—war is imminent. We must not only win, but win beautifully—and win quickly!"

(End of Chapter)